Reprint from the
Epoch Times:Will China's Stance on Taiwan Bring WWIII? A Interview
with Democracy Movement Expert Wei Jingsheng By Wang
Lulu The Epoch Times May 24, 2005
Mr. Wei Jingsheng, noted human rights activist and
chairman of the Overseas Coalition for China's
Democracy Movement.
Wei Jingsheng, a well-known human rights activist and
chairman of the Overseas Coalition for China's
Democracy Movement, presented his unique views on the
recent visits by Taiwan's opposition leaders to China
and the Taiwan - China situation during an Epoch Times
interview. Following is a transcript of Wei's major
points.
The Chinese Communist Regime Is Busy Preparing for War
As a matter of fact, Hu Jintao, China's Party Chief,
has a strong motive for war with Taiwan. That's because
Hu has not been able to consolidate his power in the
Party or among the people easily and he is not yet in
total control. In other words, as a dictator, he
doesn't have enough authority. How does he establish
that authority? The tradition of the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) dictates that he must fight a war.
To establish absolute authority, Mao Zedong fought the
Korean War when he took power and Deng Xiaoping fought
a war with Viet Nam when he ascended to power.
Actually, there was another war in between, caused by a
nationwide famine in the early 1960s when the CCP
quickly lost its credibility among the people. The CCP
fought a war with India and regained its authority. So
the CCP really has this pattern of behavior.
Hu is someone who follows Mao's example closely, and as
a result, he'd be willing to wage a war to solidify his
own absolute power. The war may serve as a purging
process in which all those who are not loyal will fall
out of favor and be weeded out.
Out of patriotism, people would probably go all out to
support him during a war, since the nation cannot lose
sight of its priorities over trivial matters. More
importantly, all of the internal problems, including
the collapse of China's economy and 50 percent of its
non-performing accounts, in addition to the political
power issue, will be resolved all at once.
The CCP Has Prepared for Many Years to Win This War
For years, the CCP has been readying itself for this
war, with hundreds of short-range missiles deployed
across the strait of Taiwan. In fact, those missiles
are more for Americans in case they come to Taiwan's
aid. No one can be 100 percent sure that they can win a
war, but the CCP has reasons to be optimistic about
coming out victorious. From a purely military
perspective, China is not likely to lose if it fights a
war with Taiwan or even with the U.S. Why is this so?
The reason is, China will not fight Americans face to
face and neither will it need to travel to America.
Rather, Americans would have to travel half way around
the globe, across the Pacific Ocean, to fight a war at
China's doorstep.
It's going to be a dogged war for Americans. China is
not Iraq, and it would be a bloody war. America
suffered only two major military defeats in its
history, both with China in the Korean War and the Viet
Nam War. So what are America's odds of winning a war?
They are very slim. Probably 50/50, depending on who is
better prepared. They know this, so it becomes a
political contest. In other words, it becomes a matter
of making great efforts to prevent a war from breaking
out.
For some years now, the CCP has been attempting to
overcome all the difficulties that might occur during
the war through diplomatic channels. One of the
difficulties comes from the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO), whose members may all rise up
against the CCP once a war breaks out. Another hurdle
is Japan, who may act as the American supply base.
That's why the CCP, in preparing for war, has to first
drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies,
and secondly coerce Japan not to provide American
troops with logistics support. A well-known fact is, in
a sense, that a modern war is fought more in terms of
logistic supplies than on the battle ground. No one can
win a war without a continuous flow of supplies.
In Asia, no country, other than Japan, would support
the U.S. with a strong supply line. It is the only
nation that's capable of doing this. If the CCP could
succeed in subduing Japan, and dividing Europe and the
U.S. it could thus isolate the U.S., making it fight a
far-flung war alone. I don't think that American
generals believe they could stand a better chance of
winning such a war.
So what we need to do is to prevent these conditions
from materializing before the CCP launches the war.
Avoid a Breach Between the U.S. and Europe
One of the important steps the CCP would take to split
the U.S. and Europe is to encourage Europe to lift its
ban on arms sales to China. Lifting the ban would mean
tens of billions of dollars worth of arms orders from
China. These orders, long-term in nature, would not be
completed soon. What motive would Europe have to fight
a war with the U.S. during those 20 years, with orders
yet unfulfilled?
By that time, I think Europe will be hesitant. Right
now, the U.S. insists that no weapons from Europe be
sold to China, and that disagreement itself may well be
the cause for a U.S.-Europe split. Moreover, once the
ban is lifted in Europe, countries such as South
Africa, Israel, Russia and others will scramble for a
share of the business with China.
North Korea's Nuclear Problem
North Korea, a clown and a pawn for the CCP, is trying
to blackmail Japan and South Korea with its nuclear
stick, and as a result, they might not assist the U.S.
in the war. The Japanese are particularly sensitive
about the nuclear issue, because they were victims of
two atomic bombs.
Japan is the only nation where atomic bombs have ever
been dropped. They create a big fanfare about nuclear
matters and the whole nation is terrified. Under the
threat of nuclear weapons by North Korea, many people
in Japan have said, let us not be hit by atomic bombs
for doing things for others. When the time comes, Kim
Jong II, North Korea's Party chief, might really drop
an atomic bomb on Japan, since a Communist rogue dares
to do anything.
The Japanese public would seethe if an atomic bomb was
dropped. The Japanese government, a democracy, will
have no choice, but not to participate in the war.
The Communist Party Needs to Go to War to Survive
Lien and Soong's trip to Taiwan was like admitting
weakness to the enemy, and affected the Taiwanese's
confidence in defending their democracy. This was
strategic blow to the unity between various Taiwan
parties and groups. The second, even worse effect is
that the public knows that the Communist Party has
always been aggressively preparing for a war against
Taiwan.
But it doesn't matter if it's Hu Jingtao or Jiang
Zemin, the road of preparing for this war has been much
more difficult than they expected. Moreover, outsiders
have been trying hard to prevent this war by keeping
the conditions for war from materializing.
In addition, many people with conscience in the
Communist Party have voiced opposing opinions, building
internal pressure. Although Hu Jingtao is a resolute
person, there is in fact, considerable insider
pressure, which has played a crucial role in preventing
the war. Then Lien Zhan and Soong Chu-yu's visit to
China, immediately after the CCP passed the so-called
Anti-Secession Law, revealed Taiwan's weakness. In
fact, this supports Hu Jingtao, by proving that the
Pro-war group's theory is correct, and that the Anti-
Secession Law was passed just at the right time. You
see how quickly Taiwan gives up? Today Lien Zhan and
Soong Chu-yu, tomorrow it will be Chen Shui-bian.
Therefore, this is a way for the free and democratic
Taiwan to surrender without a war, and encourages those
pro-war Communist Party members, while discrediting
some of the wiser people in the party. I believe this
action has very evil consequences that will become very
serious when we look back five or ten years from now.
Don't think that just because the Communist Party says
some nice words that they have good intentions towards
Taiwan. The Communist Party has no good intentions.
They have never had good intentions. Whenever they
appear to have them, the common peoples' experience has
shown that there was always a bigger plot behind it.
I think that the people of Taiwan, especially those of
the Pan-Blue Coalition, should look at the situation
with wisdom, instead of listening to the nonsense
spoken by their political leaders.
Although the Taiwan media was very supportive before
and after Lien and Soong's visit, this did not dupe the
public. Therefore, in the recent National Assembly,
many Pan-Blue Coalition members did not vote, because
they wouldn't accept the bent-knee surrender to the
Communist Party. It is obvious that the internal
opinions are very different. These are Taiwan's people,
especially the Pan-Blue Coalition members, warning
their political leaders, You're wrong.
The Entire World May Be Involved in this Chess Game
Why is Russia encouraging China into this war by
selling weapons and providing petroleum pipelines?
Putin's political power is gradually gravitating toward
a dictatorship. In this process, he hopes to restore
Russia's influence and control in Eastern Europe.
If war breaks out, the world's attention and strength
will be focused on the Taiwan Strait, and Russia could
gamble and restore its sovereignty in Eastern Europe.
Thus, this game of chance not only involves a few
countries, it could include the world.
The forces within China that oppose the Communist Party
would play a key role in directly preventing this war.
Thus, it is very important for the Chinese people to
recognize the Communist Party for what it is. For
decades, the people have put great hopes in the
Communist Party, only to be disappointed time after
time.
Every time, the Communist Party paints a wonderful
picture, telling people how good it is, that there are
no problems, and that things can only get better. In
the end, everybody was deceived. Before Hu Jingtao came
to power, many people overseas held high hopes for him,
working to spread Hu Jingtao?s propaganda, and now,
what is the result? After he came to power, he arrested
dissents, minority groups, Falun Gong practitioners,
Christians, and even Communist Party members with
differing opinions.
Several newspapers have already been banned. The
Communist Party's nature is to disappoint the kind-
hearted people again and again, because it is an evil
force. Hardly any of their long-planned agendas have
done any good; they have only done evil.
If we are cheated this time, it could cause a world
war, including attacking each other with atomic bombs.
As a result, the Chinese people will have to withstand
a huge disaster. Therefore, we are extremely worried.
We must think of a way for everyone to take action to
stop this war.
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